Market Crash – Should DIY-Investors Panic?

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Aug 242015

Market Crash (24th August 2015) – DIY-Investors’ View

After the 154 point fall (a drop of 4.53%) in the All – Share Index (ASX) today, Mick Pavey takes a look at the ASX graph to try and make sense of what’s happening…

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Webinar Recording (5th August 2015)

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Aug 062015

Webinar Recording (Wednesday 5th August 2015)

This post has been updated (8.30am, 7th August) and now contains all three sections of the webinar recording, first broadcast (live) on Wednesday 5th August 2015.

Webinar Recording : Part 1 (19m 54s)

This section contains; Introduction, “In The News”, The All-Share Index (ASX), commentary on the DIY-Investors Portfolios and a feature on “Positive Divergence” (featuring Flybe Group [FLYB]).

As usual, you may need to allow time for the video to ‘buffer’, depending on the speed of your broadband connection. After the video has loaded, you can use the play bar (at the bottom of the video), to scroll through and pause or re-start it.

Webinar Recording : Part 2 – Mick’s Radar (27m 11s)

This section contains Mick’s Radar and also commentary on shares mentioned in previous webinars. Companies covered include; Accesso Technology Group (ACSO), Pendragon (PDG), Trinity Mirror (TNI) and Man Group (EMG).


Webinar Recording : Part 3 – Q & A Session (34m 28s)

This section contains the Q & A Session…

If you have any comments or observations on these Webinar Recordings from 5th August 2015, then please use the contact us form Here.

Mick (Updated 7th August 2015)


Passive 10 Stock Portfolio (30th June 2015)

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Jul 152015

The DIY-investors Passive 10 Stock Portfolio (30th June 2015)

The Passive 10 Stock portfolio has again increased, from last month’s position and is now up 11.52% at the end of June 2015. The All-Share Index has dropped back and is only up 1.07%, since 1st January, effectively meaning the selection has out-performed the index (by 10.45%) after the first six months of 2015.

2015 Passive 10 Portfolio (30th June 2015)

As in previous years, this portfolio was compiled over the days leading up to 1st Jan 2015, using the principles outlined in Mick’s book “Picking Winning Shares” and will remain unchanged for the 2015 calendar year.

EMG – Is this a buy point? (13th July 2015)

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Jul 132015

Man Group (EMG) – Start of an Upmove?

We’ve been following Man Group for a while on the Inner Circle Webinars and you may recall that I felt it was overbought and maybe due a retracement (Mick’s Rubber Band)! Well, now may be a good time to re-visit EMG and take stock.

EMG Graph (152.4p at the close on Friday 10th July 2015)

EMG - Graph (10.07.2015) - Reversal

The interesting point to note is the very low level of the RSI (Showing EMG as being very oversold), as illustrated in the following annotated graph…

EMG (10th July 2015) - oversold RSI

EMG Key Metrics (10th July 2015)

Man Group - Key Metrics (10th July 2015)

Interesting Points From Key Metrics:

  • Pre-Tax Profit higher in 2014 (Forecast £208m for 2015).
  • ROCE (24.8%) in 2014 better than previous 3 years.
  • At 3.67, the PSR is slightly on the high side.
  • The Free Cash flow (FCF) was lower in 2014 (acquisitions).

Recent Results

Q1 Trading Statement

On May 8th 2015, Man Group released its Trading Statement for the First Quarter. The main summary is shown below…

EMG - Q1 Trading Statement (8th May 2015)

Last Full Year Results (Y.E. 31st December 2014)

If you want to look at the full results, you’ll find them on the Man Group Website HERE.

A bundle of mixed signals here then, with the TA looking positive but the fundamentals (and newsflow) highlighting variable results – making it difficult to see consistent trends. Add the Greece/Euro troubles and China market worries into the mix and it complicates things even more IMO.

As usual, I’d be very interested to know what you think.

Mick (13th July 2015)

ETO – Watching Carefully (25th June 2015)

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Jun 252015

Entertainment One (ETO) – Breakout On The Cards?

As most of you know, I’ve been following the fortunes of Entertainment One for many years. It featured as a case study in my book (Picking Winning Shares), where I introduced it as a post-IPO faller. It has also featured from time to time in our DIY-Investors Portfolios. Recently, I’ve been watching its price action unfold, watching for the resistance (at 361p) to be broken. That breakout looks imminent, as you can see from the graph (below).

ETO Graph (361.0p at the close yesterday – 24th June 2015)

ETO Graph (24th June 2015)

ETO Key Metrics (24th June 2015)

ETO - Key Metrics (24th June 2015)

Full Year Results (released 19th May 2015)

Just over a month ago, ETO released full year results for the financial year ended 31st March 2015. The numbers were pretty impressive, as can be seen in the highlights below…

Strong financial performance

  • Group underlying EBITDA up 16% to £107.3 million (up 11% to £117.2 million on a pro forma basis)
  • Group profit before tax doubles to £44.0 million (up 13% to £88.8 million on an adjusted basis)
  • Diluted earnings per share up 99% to 14.1p per share (up 12% to 23.5p per share on an adjusted basis)
  • Group revenues down 5% (down 4% on a pro forma basis), strong Television performance offset by Film
  • Significantly improved cash conversion from the business, with adjusted free cash flow increasing to £41.0 million (2014: £18.8 million)

If you want to look at the full results, you’ll find them HERE. Take particular note ogf the free cash flow generation – especially in relation to the capitalisation and profit!

As usual, I’d be very interested to know what you think.

Mick (25th June 2015)